|
Post by imperfectgolfer on Jul 12, 2012 6:45:34 GMT -5
Here is 3jack's results for the Greenbrier Classic tournament. 3jack.blogspot.com/2012/07/3jack-golfs-pga-tour-rundown-week-27.html3jack, What is the purpose of making these predictions - other than an entertainment activity that that you personally find interesting? Surely, you cannot believe that there is any "science" involved in the process of making these personal (gambling) predictions. Jeff.
|
|
|
Post by richie3jack on Jul 12, 2012 8:15:39 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that certain courses favor certain aspects of the game. It’s the human element that is the difficult part.
I look at the historical data with regards of the tournament in prior years and then spot what trends that course in particular favors.
I know I have predicted 3 winners this year.
Justin Rose (Doral) 50/1 odds Kyle Stanley (Farmers) 50/1 odds Webb Simpson (US Open) 66/1 odds
IIRC, I’m now up to 8 different picks that have finished in 2nd place. I’d have to go back and look at that data to pick out the ones. Off the top of my head, I had Robert Garrigus at the Humana, Carl Petterrsson at the Sony and Kyle Stanley at Torrey Pines.
Also, up until the US Open I was only picking 5 players and not picking any player with better than 20/1 odds. I found that was a little too difficult to do with any real success and I got tired of watching somebody win that were in my final ‘cut’ of players I would pick.
The Greenbrier was one of the few tournaments where I was well off. I was well off at Pebble Beach as well, but I think I have a better idea of who to pick next time around.
Potter, Jr. and Kelly didn’t fit the type of games that do well at the Greenbrier. Summerhays, Castro, Simpson and Beljan had games that have historically done well there.
There has been a constant fine-tuning of the way to go about picking players even more accurately. I think the real trick is the putting. I don’t think you can do anything with Putts Gained when it comes to the projections because it’s too volatile of a metric. One week a player could be ranked 100th in Putts Gained, the next week they could be 50th in Putts Gained…and still not win. I think it’s a good metric for a player to use at the end of the year to figure out where they really stood or may every ¼ of the Tour season, but anything more frequent than that doesn’t tell them much.
3JACK
|
|
|
Post by nmgolfer on Jul 12, 2012 9:25:33 GMT -5
Excellent Job 3Jack!
|
|
|
Post by imperfectgolfer on Jul 12, 2012 14:52:31 GMT -5
3jack,
What is the "scientific" part of your prediction process?
Jeff.
|
|
|
Post by richie3jack on Jul 13, 2012 8:39:49 GMT -5
I never claimed it to be 'scientific.'
I use mathematic formulas and statistical trends of players and historical results for each course.
3JACK
|
|
|
Post by virtuoso on Jul 13, 2012 13:03:07 GMT -5
To pick predict 3 winners at specific events for the entire year is extraordinary, let alone in the first half of the year.
|
|